Technology

Is the arrival of 3D TV premature?

This week, Samsung is making 3D televisions available for purchase in Canada. They will quickly be followed by other major manufacturers with their own 3D displays. Does this mark a new shift in how we experience entertainment, or just a neat concept that lacks the content to make it tangible?

Our culture seems obsessed with what's new, and what's innovative. There's always a need to push forward, and the TV/Entertainment industry still remains a powerful force when it comes to pushing new technology into the marketplace and convincing us that we need it.

When done right, 3D TV is phenomenal, as anyone who saw Avatar can tell you. Yet it's not always done right, and Alice in Wonderland is a great example of this.

Is the imperative of first pushing HD and now pushing 3D partly a response to the internet and the larger phenomena of sharing content? If you keep innovating, if you keep evolving, it makes it harder for the barbarian hordes on the internet to undermine your business model. Which is not to say they won't catch up, rather this might be the new way of doing business. Make money by getting people to keep buying into new technologies and platforms.

For example while the initial Samsung models start at $2,500 for the TV, the glasses start at $250 each, and those are just entry level. When I first heard of 3D TV I imagined them being a hit at sports bars, but not if you have to give drunk patrons goggles that cost a few hundred bucks each.

Technology Trends for 2010

As another year comes to a close I thought I'd share some brief thoughts on what I anticipate for the world of technology in 2010:

The Might of Mobile

Mobile technology will continue to be a dominant trend as smart phones go from being tools for professionals, to devices that just about everyone has or wants.

A lot of the growth in the mobile sector is driven by applications. A related platform that I think will thrive in 2010 is Augmented Reality (o/k/a AR).

Augmented Reality is an effort to bring the qualities of the web to the physical world by literally adding a layer of hypertext on top of our material reality. Often described and associated with the concept of the "Internet of Things", the idea is to unlock web-based information associated with each object or location.

As a concept AR has been receiving a considerable amount of attention and investment. The recent announcement of advertising in AR will have a powerful and also normative effect.

In this regard, "hyper-local" advertising will be a big trend in 2010, and it will be driven by mobile and AR applications. This will be a way that Twitter starts to cash in, for example, bu having localized ads that target people in particular cities or neighbourhoods. If you don't want to be exposed to these ads, you'll be able to pay a premium and get Twitter with spam filters.

Tablet Computing

I'm kind of excited about the (re)arrival of tablet computers. Apple has one coming out in the spring, Google is rumoured to have one out in early summer, and I've been playing with Nokia's N900, which calls itself a tablet.

What excites me is the combination of mobility with traditional computational power and abilities. On the one hand, it will further drive the development of mobile applications, with the tablets marketed and treated like mobile devices. On the other, they enable a truly rich multimedia experience with their expanded touch screens and user interfaces.

One of their impacts will be to continue to accelerate the rate of technological change as evolution happens faster and companies push out new products and upgrades to keep up.

Last Mile Mobile Solutions: Tracking Crisis Response

I do a lot of work with World Vision Canada and have this week met with some great people working on an innovative project that could have significant impact above and beyond their initiative. It's called "Last Mile Mobile Solutions" and it's a partnership with FieldWorker Mobile Technology Solutions to produce mobile units that speed up, and digitize, the process of food distribution in poverty and crisis relief programs. Here's a video that illustrates the technology and its potential:

This quote from the website contextualizes the potential for innovation with this device/concept:

LMMS replaces an intensive manual, paper-based process. Crucial information is captured using handheld computing units that wirelessly transmit that information to permanent database storage, analysis and reporting. The mobile features enable staff to roam and send and retrieve data that they need. Bar-coded identity cards link beneficiaries to a wireless data management system, which enables faster and more efficient field operations. Preliminary results indicate a 75% reduction in beneficiary processing and verification times at food distributions. LMMS eliminates the reliance on paper-based systems, automates calculations and delivers faster web-based reports to donors and stakeholders. The project is an example of how the humanitarian and private sector have combined their respective strengthens to achieve substantial impact in improving efficiency and accountability in humanitarian action.

Update: Jay Narhan has setup a blog dedicated to the LMMS project.

Resisting Internet Orthodoxy

I've been thinking a lot about what makes the work I do and the ideas I have different from my contemporaries. Rather facetiously, I talk about the internet as a new religion embraced by the masses in search of salvation. By resisting internet orthodoxy, I deliberately try to see our society and its relationship with technology in a unique manner.

This begins with refusing to use the same jargon and phrases as others, and playing with words to find more accessible and meaningful ways of explaining trends and phenomena. The internet is full of technical concepts that have exclusive and rigid meanings.

Yet the power and resilience of the internet is derived from its open nature, so it only makes sense that we embrace freedom when we talk and think about related ideas and concepts. I do this by generally distrusting technical authorities, including early adopters, technology executives, and I.T. admins. I respect their knowledge, but always question whether their perspective has the potential to be transfered to people who aren't in a position of technical authority (the vast majority of us).

When it comes to the world of social media, which is both technical and non-technical, elitist and also accessible, I find myself consistently frustrated by the level of "group think." In contrast to other technical areas, social media accommodates anyone and everyone, so jargon isn't an acceptable vocabulary to control the discussion and analysis.

What you commonly find is a spoken and unspoken orthodoxy, rules that dictates how tools should be used and people should act. The problem is that this stifles innovation and doesn't allow for the kind of true experimentation we should be seeing in this sector.

Public relations, marketing and advertising people lament the rash of social media experts who project their own industry orthodoxy onto an emergent discipline. Few understand the dynamic involved when in a long chain of diverse individuals and organizations who have a range of expertise culturally acclimatize their own networks and friends.

The seeds of this kind of internet orthodoxy were sown in Ursula Franklin's definition of technology as being "how we do things around here". The variable comes in how we define where we are, with the internet collapsing space into time and everyone being "here" at some point in time.

The Internet as Religion

Here Comes Augmented Reality

Augmented reality is kind of a hybrid between material reality and virtual reality in that it combines the power of hyperlinks and interconnected media with the geography and architecture of the physical world.

For a long time everyone assumed that virtual reality would be the basis of "cyberspace" and that it's arrival was imminent, however while it has been around from a technical perspective for well over a decade, very few regular folk have adopted it, outside of the gaming world of course.

So augmented reality is appearing as a kind of compromise that brings the benefits and promise of virtual reality to the real world that we all find so comfortable.

As well the rate of technological change is so rapid these days that while this may be the first time you've heard of augmented reality, I anticipate that you'll hear a lot more real soon, and by the end of the year it could be a regular part of the popular culture.

GhostNet, Conficker, and the New Arms Race

There are two fascinating developments in the world of online security that are so sensational as to seem right out of a cyberpunk thriller.

The first, which I've spoken about on CBC recently, is the resilience of the Conficker worm, which culminates in some kind of action on April 1st 2009.

The second is an incredible espionage initiative called GhostNet, which friends of mine at the Citizen Lab here in Toronto have helped unearth and expose to the public.

Combined these two stories depict something I've been describing as an open arms race, in which proxy forces develop new types of information based weapons and test them live on the internet. While it's never clear who the players are behind this perpetual information war, researchers are able to dissect the tools and compromised systems to portray a fascinating tale of computer-based cloak and dagger.

Microsoft looks ahead 10 years and sees a stronger monopoly

This week one of the columns I'm making available to CBC radio stations talks about the decline in PC sales and the direction Microsoft and Intel plan to take in the future.

Over the past several months I've had a number of columns that looked at how some of these trends combine to give us a sense of what the short and medium term futures may look like. Ubiquitous network connectivity and a blending of the real and virtual as our lives are constantly surrounded by screens.

Microsoft has now come out with their own vision of the future, explicitly a decade from now in 2019, and it includes a lot of tactile media on super thin displays. While we take for granted the marketing intent of such a vision, I can't help but notice the monopoly the company envisions for 2019 is far more pervasive than the one they had in 1999.

<a href="http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-GB&amp;playlist=videoByUuids:uuids:a517b260-bb6b-48b9-87ac-8e2743a28ec5&amp;showPlaylist=true&amp;from=shared" target="_new" title="Future Vision Montage">Video: Future Vision Montage</a>

Grow your own Internet

A subject I've been passionate about for some time is the issue of universal access to the Internet. By this I refer not just to the actual connection, but also the social infrastructure that allows for intelligent use.

Recently President-elect Barack Obama reiterated his committment to ensure that all Americans have high-speed access to the Internet, and while here in Canada our urban centres are well connected, many of our rural communities are not.

What has always frustrated me about this issue is the techno-centric approach that government policy and advocates have focused on. The idea that the Internet is just a series of tubes is something that is easy to laugh at, yet it accurately reflects the utilitarian culture we ascribe to it.

I always couple culture with technology in the same light as political economy, and what access strategies generally lack is a focus on education, literacy, and creating local capcity to maintain the infrastructure required to get communities connected.

There's a chicken and egg scenario with rural broadband access in which companies are unwilling to invest unless there is demand and yet the demand may not exist due to a lack of awareness.

Similarly I think there's a need to grow your own Internet, invest in local infrastructure, and create the demand from the inside out.

Wondering about the White Space

I cover a lot of subjects on my weekly CBC Radio column, and I'm always fascinated by which ones garner the greatest listener response. Something that is particularly interesting to me, and apparently a lot of listeners, is the upcoming explosion of wireless devices making use of the spectrum called White Space.

For those who missed it, or want to hear it again, you can download my CBC Radio Toronto appearance on Metro Morning with Andy Barrie.

And these are some of the articles that came out around the time of the announcement.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/11/05/fcc_approves_white_spaces/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7709775.stm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/06/BUDO13VRLV.DTL
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/technology/internet/05spectrum.html
http://www.efluxmedia.com/news_Google_Prepares_Its_Strategy_For_Attackin...

If you're a friend of mine on Facebook I have a video on my profile from Newsworld that was recorded in the spring on the same subject.

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